{"id":14677,"date":"2012-02-17T12:08:52","date_gmt":"2012-02-17T17:08:52","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.paginiromanesti.ca\/?p=14677"},"modified":"2012-02-17T12:08:52","modified_gmt":"2012-02-17T17:08:52","slug":"spargerea-balonului-imobiliar","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/2012\/02\/17\/spargerea-balonului-imobiliar\/","title":{"rendered":"\u201cSpargerea\u201d balonului imobiliar?"},"content":{"rendered":"

\"\"<\/a>\u00cen num\u0103rul trecut, am ar\u0103tat modalit\u0103\u0163ile pe care le ave\u0163i la \u00eendem\u00e2n\u0103 de a analiza pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103. Scriam c\u0103, de\u015fi la nivel general pia\u0163a canadian\u0103 \u015fi montrealez\u0103 sufer\u0103 de \u00eencetinire, totu\u015fi, \u00eentr-o serie de sectoare, exist\u0103 o activitate imobiliar\u0103 intens\u0103.<\/p>\n

Sugestia mea era ca, \u00eenainte de a decide s\u0103 vindem sau s\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103m, s\u0103 nu ne lu\u0103m nici dup\u0103 zvonuri, nici m\u0103car dup\u0103 articolele care analizeaz\u0103 pia\u0163a \u00een ge-ne\u00adral, ci s\u0103 ne inform\u0103m care sunt tendin\u0163ele locale, \u00een cartierul \u015fi zona de interes. (www.StatistiquesMtl.com)<\/p>\n

\u00cen ultimele s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, \u00een pres\u0103 au continuat s\u0103 apar\u0103 articole alarmiste, alimentate uneori chiar de persoane oficiale. De pild\u0103, Mark Carney, Guvernatorul B\u0103ncii Canadei, a declarat recent c\u0103 “unele pre\u00ad\u0163uri la case sunt probabil supraevaluate”. O afir\u00adma\u00ad\u0163ie ce con\u0163ine cuvinte precum “unele” \u015fi “probabil” n-a\u015f zice c\u0103 e una foarte precis\u0103. E suficient \u00eens\u0103 pentru ca o serie de jurnali\u015fti s\u0103 preia aceast\u0103 declara\u0163ie \u015fi s\u0103 anun\u0163e c\u0103 suntem la un pas de spargerea \u00a0“balonului imobiliar\u201d (“pop the bubble\u201d \u00een englez\u0103, s-ar traduce prin “bul\u0103\u201d, dar nu sun\u0103 bine \u00een rom\u00e2ne\u015fte). De\u015fi ministrul de Finan\u0163e James Flaherty a declarat c\u0103 urm\u0103\u00adre\u015fte si\u00adtua\u0163ia \u015fi e gata s\u0103 intervin\u0103, presa \u00eentre\u0163ine acest subiect cald.<\/p>\n

Care este realitatea? C\u00e2teva elemente ne ajut\u0103 s\u0103 analiz\u0103m situa\u0163ia:<\/p>\n

– Dob\u00e2nzile de acordare\u00a0 a \u00eemprumutului sunt \u00eenc\u0103 extrem de sc\u0103zute \u015fi nu sunt semne c\u0103 ar urma s\u0103 creasc\u0103 semnificativ (a fost \u00eencercat\u0103 o mic\u0103 cre\u015ftere, de 0.5%, dar f\u0103r\u0103 mare succes).<\/p>\n

– Pre\u0163urile, \u00een ultimii 3 ani, au fluctuat (\u00een unele zone au crescut, \u00een altele au sc\u0103zut) dar, pe ansamblu, nivelul pre\u0163urilor e cam acela\u015fi. Dac\u0103 \u00een ultimii 3 ani, la acelea\u015fi\u00a0 pre\u0163uri \u015fi la acelea\u015fi dob\u00e2nzi au avut loc destule tranzac\u0163ii imobiliare, de ce nu ar putea continua la fel?<\/p>\n

– “Unele\u201d zone vor fi “probabil\u201d \u00eenc\u0103 \u00een cre\u015ftere o vreme, altele \u00eens\u0103 sunt \u00een lejer\u0103 sc\u0103dere. Tendin\u0163a ge-neral\u0103 este spre cump\u0103rarea de imobile abordabile (condo), \u00een zone centrale (Montr\u00e9al). Totusi, \u00een unele zone, de\u015fi num\u0103rul de tranzac\u0163ii scade, pre\u0163urile cresc! Deci, ca s\u0103 \u015fti\u0163i dac\u0103 pia\u0163a \u00eentr-o regiune este bun\u0103, trebuie s\u0103 ave\u0163i \u00een vedere \u015fi evolu\u0163ia pre\u0163ului \u015fi num\u0103rul de tranzac\u0163ii.<\/p>\n

– Ministrul de Finan\u0163e ne las\u0103 s\u0103 credem c\u0103 preg\u0103te\u015fte o nou\u0103 corec\u0163ie a regulilor de acordare a \u00eemprumutului. \u2013 Se vorbe\u015fte de cre\u015fterea avansului minim la 7,5%, pentru o cas\u0103 unifamilial\u0103 sau duplex \u015fi 12%, pentru triplex si quadruplex (\u00een loc de 5 \u015fi 10%, c\u00e2t este acum). Ar fi al treilea an la r\u00e2nd \u00een care regulile devin mai severe, dar exact aceste res\u00ad\u00adtric\u0163ii au f\u0103cut ca pia\u0163a canadian\u0103 s\u0103 r\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 totu\u015fi stabil\u0103.<\/p>\n

Concluzia mea ar fi c\u0103 o \u201cspargere a balonului imobiliar\u201d nu este de a\u015fteptat \u00een regiunea Montr\u00e9al, dar \u00een mod sigur nu mai suntem \u00een anii 2002-2006, c\u00e2nd cre\u015fterile au fost extrem de spectaculoase. Puterea de cump\u0103rare este totu\u015fi din ce \u00een ce mai limitat\u0103. Cum \u00eens\u0103 \u015fi pre\u0163ul chiriilor a ajuns destul de ridicat \u015fi se pare c\u0103 va continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103, este \u00eenc\u0103 preferabil s\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103m o prim\u0103 locuin\u0163\u0103 \u00eentr-o zon\u0103 bun\u0103, dac\u0103 avem suficien\u0163i bani pentru avans \u015fi o disciplin\u0103 financiar\u0103.<\/p>\n

Cert este c\u0103 nu mai suntem \u00een situa\u0163ia de a putea cump\u0103ra cu zero avans \u015fi a ne a\u015ftepta s\u0103 c\u00e2\u015ftig\u0103m \u00een doi-trei ani zeci de mii de dolari, cum a fost cazul p\u00e2n\u0103 \u00een 2007. Cuv\u00e2ntul de ordine este pruden\u0163a.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

\u00cen num\u0103rul trecut, am ar\u0103tat modalit\u0103\u0163ile pe care le ave\u0163i la \u00eendem\u00e2n\u0103 de a analiza pia\u0163a imobiliar\u0103. Scriam c\u0103, de\u015fi la nivel general pia\u0163a canadian\u0103 \u015fi montrealez\u0103 sufer\u0103 de \u00eencetinire, totu\u015fi, \u00eentr-o serie de sectoare, exist\u0103 o activitate imobiliar\u0103 intens\u0103. Sugestia mea era ca, \u00eenainte de a decide s\u0103 vindem sau s\u0103 cump\u0103r\u0103m, s\u0103 nu […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":5,"featured_media":0,"comment_status":"open","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_jetpack_memberships_contains_paid_content":false,"footnotes":"","jetpack_publicize_message":"","jetpack_publicize_feature_enabled":true,"jetpack_social_post_already_shared":false,"jetpack_social_options":{"image_generator_settings":{"template":"highway","enabled":false}}},"categories":[415],"tags":[],"jetpack_publicize_connections":[],"jetpack_sharing_enabled":true,"jetpack_featured_media_url":"","jetpack_shortlink":"https:\/\/wp.me\/p9PoWe-3OJ","_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14677"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/5"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=14677"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/14677\/revisions"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=14677"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=14677"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/paginiromanesti.ca\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=14677"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}